What is behind Orbán’s “peace saga”?
27 July, 2024
In the last few days, starting from Saturday, May 10, some videos of military maneuvers have been actively circulating on social media and messaging platforms. These clips supposedly “reveal” preparations by the Hungarian Armed Forces for a deployment, or even an offensive, toward Ukraine, specifically in the Zakarpattia region (Transcarpathia).
The dynamic video sequences and background music are obviously designed to create exactly the impression of offensive actions and a potential military threat to Ukraine from Hungary—which is a member of the EU and NATO.
This is not the only militaristic-themed video, related to Hungarian-Ukrainian relations, to have been aggressively shared recently, often accompanied by claims of Hungarian troop buildups near the Ukrainian border or other alleged military activities.
Let’s state upfront: this is false. No military equipment has been amassed along the Ukrainian-Hungarian border in recent days.
“The situation at Ukraine’s border with Hungary has not changed recently, and Ukrainian border guards have not observed any unusual or non-standard situations,” commented representatives of the Mukachevo Border Detachment to Infopost.media, regarding the above supposed movement of Hungarian equipment toward the Ukrainian border.
It is difficult to say definitively who might stand behind this disinformation campaign. However, it strangely coincides with a new escalation in Ukrainian-Hungarian relations, following the exposure of a network of Hungarian military intelligence spies by Ukraine’s Security Service (the SBU), and the reciprocal expulsion of diplomats by Kyiv and Budapest that followed.
Thus, this doesn’t appear to be a coincidence but rather a deliberate hybrid interference. According to analysts from the Institute for Central European Strategy (ICES), published by Infopost, such interference in Ukrainian-Hungarian relations has been systematic over the past few years. Since 2021, this hybrid meddling has focused on spreading the narrative of a possible military clash between Ukraine and Hungary, as well as supposed preparations for such a conflict.
The Turul Operation
On Saturday, May 10, 2025, a video began circulating on X (formerly Twitter) styled as a news report about the alleged movement of Hungarian military equipment toward the Ukrainian border. It was initially posted by the account @hungarybased, accompanied by the caption “Operation Turul. Soon… The return of Zakarpattia to the Homeland.”
The video appeared exactly on the day after Ukraine’s Security Service announced it had uncovered a network of Hungarian military intelligence operatives in Zakarpattia (Transcarpathia). That same day, Ukraine announced the expulsion of two Hungarian diplomats in a tit-for-tat response to Hungary’s expulsion of Ukrainian diplomats.
The video features some armored vehicles, helicopters, artillery, and a news-style banner with the phrase “The Hungarian-Ukrainian border will be reinforced.” The introduction also claims that the “most powerful squadron of 10 planes took off this morning,” referring to May 10.
However, a detailed analysis confirms that genuine footage was manipulated to fuel a hybrid influence campaign, stoking fears of military conflict and territorial claims—ultimately echoing the tactics used by Russia in its 2014 and 2022 invasions of Ukraine, but this time – from the west.
Decommissioned Mi-8’s, Turkish-Hungarian Armored Vehicles, and German “Panzers”
The publication includes two elements: a text introduction and the video itself. The intro references the turul—a mythical bird symbolizing Hungary and Hungarian nationalism. Among Hungarian right-wing groups, it generally symbolizes ethnic Hungarian lands. The turul appears in monuments and statues across Hungary and in areas with Hungarian minorities.
Notably, a turul statue, was removed from Mukachevo Castle on October 13, 2022. Even though it was only a copy of the original one, once installed on the so-called Millennium celebration and devoted to the anniversary of 1000 years since the establishment of the former Hungarian Kingdom back in 1896, to be taken away later by the Czech authorities back in 1927, it immediately sparked a political scandal then.
The edited footage includes armored vehicles, artillery, and combat helicopters. Some scenes are filmed by drones, others – by surveillance cameras or ground-based videographers. Despite the message claiming Hungary is strengthening its border with Ukraine, the video does not show any recognizable features of the Zakarpattia (Transcarpathia) border zone. The footage is also intentionally degraded with filters to obscure details.
Infopost journalists and analysts from ICES reviewed the video to identify the locations, equipment, and exercises involved.
True, the video does show Hungarian soldiers and military hardware— as confirmed by license plates in the format HK xx-xx (used by Hungary’s armed forces) and modern Hungarian military uniforms using the post-2020 HunCam digital camouflage pattern. Vehicle markings also match those of the Hungarian army.
But the footage is not new—it dates back to last year, as shown by comparisons with recordings of NATO-Hungarian joint exercises on Hungarian soil.
Some footage shows Mi-24 attack/transport helicopters of the Hungarian Air Force, with aircraft number “336” and a white arrow marking on the tail confirming Hungarian ownership. The Mi-24, a well-known Soviet-designed gunship, has been modernized in Hungary, with Russian cooperation, up to 2022. The same helicopter appears in original footage posted to YouTube by The Coalition Radio Network in November 2023.
Mi-8 helicopters also appear in the video. Hungary retired these back in 2021, after 52 years of service, but experts note they could remain operational for 4–5 more years despite being phased out.
Additionally, the video shows Panzerhaubitze 2000 (PzH 2000), self-propelled howitzers in use by Hungary. The camouflage and structure match the PzH 2000HU variant supplied by Germany’s Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW).
Hungary ordered 24 units in 2018, and the first arrived in 2022–2023. These howitzers are among the most advanced in the world, with firing ranges of 40–60 km.
Other vehicles include Gidrán combat vehicles, co-produced by Turkey’s Nurol Makina, and Hungary’s Raba Automotive Holding, with production localized in Hungary in 2023.
Many of the propaganda video’s shots match already known footage from military exercises.
Most were filmed at a training ground in Veszprém County in western Hungary, near Lake Balaton in the Bakony mountain range (a terrain similar to Zakarpattia). This area hosts the Bakony Combat Training Centre, a key site for NATO-led exercises.
Major exercises that may have provided the footage include Saber Guardian 2019 (involving the U.S., Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and others), Brave Warrior 2022 (Hungary, U.S., Italy, Slovakia, Croatia), MILEX 2025 (11 EU countries), and DEFENDER-Europe 25 (U.S., NATO countries, and partners).
The footage most likely came from the Adaptive Hussars 23 exercise, held in Hungary from November 2 to 26, 2023, with participants from the U.S., Croatia, Italy, and Turkey. Around 5,000 Hungarian troops took part, including 500 reservists. These exercises were conducted at the Bakony Combat Training Centre near Újmajor.
The Radical “Based” Network on X
The @hungarybased account, the original source of the fake video, regularly posts visual content on military and political topics, often with manipulative captions.
The fake-manipulative video featuring the Hungarian army garnered over 750,700 views and 620+ reposts within 24 hours. Reposts also added about 120,000 additional views, bringing the total to over 1.1 million.
Posts on the account indicate support for Viktor Orbán’s government and frequent criticism of liberal and pro-European forces. The account was created in January 2022.
Interestingly, the profile is followed by the Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, Hungarian ultra-nationalist influencers, accounts affiliated with Russian propaganda networks, as well as far-right circles in the United States and Western Europe.
In addition to the actual investigated account Based Hungary, X found several more profiles with the name Based – “Based Germany”, “Based Poland”, “Based Serbia”, etc., created between 2020 and 2024 and with the same right-wing radical content and a total number of 66+ thousand readers.
A long-standing narrative about a possible military clash between Ukraine and Hungary
This fits very well into the broader context of information operations targeting Ukrainian-Hungarian relations and aims to amplify mutual distrust and historical grievances. The content promoted by the @hungarybased account is often aligned with narratives portraying Ukraine as a threat to ethnic Hungarians in Zakarpattia, while simultaneously invoking Hungarian irredentist symbols and rhetoric such as the “Turul” operation, falsely suggesting territorial ambitions.
Analysts at the Institute for Central European Strategy (ICES) note that these manipulative materials are part of a consistent hybrid influence campaign dating back to at least 2021. Such campaigns aim to provoke discord between Ukraine and Hungary, often surfacing during moments of diplomatic tension—such as the recent exposure of a Hungarian military intelligence spy network by Ukraine’s Security Service (the SBU), which was followed by reciprocal expulsions of diplomats by Kyiv and Budapest.
The video’s release on 10 May—just one day after these developments—further supports the hypothesis of a coordinated disinformation effort. Its rapid virality, exceeding one million views, demonstrates the effectiveness of visual propaganda when paired with emotionally charged music, symbolic references, and false geographical context.
It is crucial to understand that, while the military hardware and personnel shown in the video are indeed Hungarian, the footage is not recent and was not recorded near the Ukrainian border. Instead, it was taken during previous military exercises, most notably “Adaptive Hussars 23,” held in western Hungary in November 2023, as well as during earlier NATO drills.
These operations were conducted on training grounds such as the Bakony Combat Training Centre near Újmajor, which lies far from Ukraine and has long served as a key site for NATO-Hungarian joint exercises. The deployment of helicopters like the Mi-24 and retired Mi-8s, along with modern artillery systems such as the German-made PzH 2000HU and Turkish-Hungarian Gidrán armored vehicles, underscores the normal, planned nature of these activities within Hungary’s defense modernization framework.
In conclusion, the viral video represents a textbook case of Kremlin-style hybrid warfare—using authentic but decontextualized and misleadingly presented footage – to fuel paranoia, drive wedges between allies, and destabilize Ukraine’s diplomatic environment. It is just but another reminder of the importance of media literacy and critical analysis in the age of high-speed disinformation.
Ця публікація доступна також українською мовою: У мережі поширюють кадри з угорськими військами начебто під кордоном з Україною. Пояснюємо, чому це фейк і «рука Кремля»
Vitalii Diachuk,
analyst at the Institute for Central European Strategy,
for Infopost.Media
